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Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions ›› 2020, Vol. 12 ›› Issue (6): 389-403.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1226.2020.00389

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Simulation and projection of climate change using CMIP6 Muti-models in the Belt and Road Region

YanRan Lü1,Tong Jiang1(),YanJun Wang1,BuDa Su1,JinLong Huang1,Hui Tao2   

  1. 1.Institute for Disaster Risk Management/ School of Geographical Sciences, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, Jiangsu 210044, China
    2.State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China
  • Received:2020-10-01 Accepted:2020-12-15 Online:2020-12-31 Published:2021-01-14
  • Contact: Tong Jiang E-mail:jiangtong@nuist.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    National Key Research and Development Program of ChinaMOST(2018FY100501);Postgraduate Research & Practice Innovation Program of Jiangsu Province(KYCX20_0957);High-level Talent Recruitment Program of the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology (NUIST);Guest Professor Program of the Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, CAS

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Abstract:

Climate condition over a region is mostly determined by the changes in precipitation, temperature and evaporation as the key climate variables. The countries belong to the Belt and Road region are subjected to face strong changes in future climate. In this paper, we used five global climate models from the latest Sixth Phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to evaluate future climate changes under seven combined scenarios of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and the Representative Concentration Pathways (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5) across the Belt and Road region. This study focuses on undertaking a climate change assessment in terms of future changes in precipitation, air temperature and actual evaporation for the three distinct periods as near-term period (2021-2040), mid-term period (2041-2060) and long-term period (2081-2100). To discern spatial structure, K?ppen-Geiger Climate Classification method has been used in this study. In relative terms, the results indicate an evidence of increasing tendency in all the studied variables, where significant changes are anticipated mostly in the long-term period. In addition to, though it is projected to increase under all the SSP-RCP scenarios, greater increases will be happened under higher emission scenarios (SSP5-8.5 and SSP3-7.0). For temperature, robust increases in annual mean temperature is found to be 5.2 °C under SSP3-7.0, and highest 7.0 °C under SSP5-8.5 scenario relative to present day. The northern part especially Cold and Polar region will be even more warmer (+6.1 °C) in the long-term (2081-2100) period under SSP5-8.5. Similarly, at the end of the twenty-first century, annual mean precipitation is inclined to increase largely with a rate of 2.1% and 2.8% per decade under SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 respectively. Spatial distribution demonstrates that the largest precipitation increases are to be pronounced in the Polar and Arid regions. Precipitation is projected to increase with response to increasing warming most of the regions. Finally, the actual evaporation is projected to increase significantly with rate of 20.3% under SSP3-7.0 and greatest 27.0% for SSP5-8.5 by the end of the century. It is important to note that the changes in evaporation respond to global mean temperature rise consistently in terms of similar spatial pattern for all the scenarios where stronger increase found in the Cold and Polar regions. The increase in precipitation is overruled by enhanced evaporation over the region. However, this study reveals that the CMIP6 models can simulate temperature better than precipitation over the Belt and Road region. Findings of this study could be the reliable basis for initiating policies against further climate induced impacts in the regional scale.

Key words: precipitation, temperature, actual evaporation, multi-models CMIP6, SSPs-RCPs, Belt and Road Region

Figure 1

The Belt and Road region with K?ppen-Geiger Climate Classification"

Table 1

Basic information of the five global climate models (GCMs)"

Climate modelModelling groupOriginal horizontal resolution (longtitude×latitude)
CanESM5CCCma, Canada~2.8°×2.8°
IPSL-CM6A-LRIPSL, France2.5°×1.2676°
MIROC6AORI, NIES, JAMSTEC, Japan1.4063°×1.40°
MRI-ESM2-0MRI, Japan~1.125°×1.12°
CNRM-ESM2-1CNRM-CERFACS, France~1.4°×1.4063°

Figure 2

Comparison of multi-year averaged monthly (a) temperature (b) and precipitation in The Belt and Road region for the period of 1995-2014; unprocessed output ensemble mean (CMIP6), processed GCM ensemble mean (Correction) and CRU (observation)"

Figure 3

Spatial distributions of annual temperature and precipitation in The Belt and Road region for the period of 1995-2014; simulated and observed temperature (a-b); simulated and observed precipitation (c-d) respectively"

Figure 4

Temporal changes of annual mean temperature in the Belt and Road region during 1995-2100 period under the scenarios of SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5"

Figure 5

Spatial patterns of projected temperature changes (℃) during the near-term (2021-2040), mid-term (2041-2060) and long-term (2081-2100) period relative to the baseline period (1995-2014) in the Belt and Road region under SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5"

Table 2

Changes (℃) in temperature for the three defined periods under seven SSP-RCP relative to 1995-2014 period over the five regions of the Belt and Road regions"

TermRegionsSSP1-1.9SSP1-2.6SSP4-3.4SSP2-4.5SSP4-6.0SSP3-7.0SSP5-8.5
Near-termTropical0.70.70.70.80.80.80.8
(2021-2040)Arid1.31.21.31.31.51.31.6
Temperate1.11.01.01.11.01.01.3
Cold1.51.21.51.41.51.31.7
Polar1.91.92.12.12.22.12.6
Mid-termTropical0.81.01.21.31.31.41.3
(2041-2060)Arid1.41.61.92.12.22.32.9
Temperate1.21.51.61.71.81.82.4
Cold1.62.02.32.42.72.73.1
Polar2.22.73.03.23.53.64.3
Long-termTropical0.71.11.72.02.43.02.4
(2081-2100)Arid1.11.72.43.03.84.76.1
Temperate1.11.52.12.63.13.75.0
Cold1.22.13.03.84.65.67.5
Polar1.83.04.14.95.76.88.8

Figure 6

Temporal changes of annual precipitation in the Belt and Road region during 1995-2100 period under the scenarios of SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5"

Figure 7

Multi-model ensemble mean of annual mean precipitation responses (%/℃) to global-mean surface air temperature for the period of the near-term (2021-2040), mid-term (2041-2060) and long-term (2081-2100) relative to the reference period (1995-2014) under SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5"

Table 3

Changes (%/℃) in hydrological sensitivity for the three defined periods under seven SSP-RCP relative to 1995-2014 period over the five regions of the Belt and Road regions"

TermRegionsSSP1-1.9SSP1-2.6SSP4-3.4SSP2-4.5SSP4-6.0SSP3-7.0SSP5-8.5
Near-termTropical4.5-4.5-3.3-0.5-0.6-3.2-2.7
(2021-2040)Arid35.547.117.59.210.1-14.514.1
Temperate11.74.12.83.72.32.81.9
Cold11.012.16.37.05.43.03.8
Polar14.016.612.85.49.85.512.0
Mid-termTropical4.5-4.5-3.3-0.5-0.6-3.2-2.7
(2041-2060)Arid35.547.117.59.210.1-14.514.1
Temperate11.74.12.83.72.32.81.9
Cold11.012.16.37.05.43.03.8
Polar14.016.612.85.49.85.512.0
Long-termTropical-3.9-8.94.1-5.20.1-0.63.8
(2081-2100)Arid-4.932.526.321.658.537.624.5
Temperate0.2-2.69.04.39.43.03.7
Cold15.08.516.48.112.39.94.6
Polar2.08.713.810.015.114.715.9

Figure 8

Temporal changes of annual mean actual evaporation in the Belt and Road region during 1995-2100 under the scenarios of SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5"

Figure 9

Spatial patterns of actual evaporation for the period of near-term (2021-2040), mid-term (2041-2060) and long-term (2081-2100) under SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios relative to the reference period (1995-2014) in the Belt and Road region"

Table 4

Changes (%) in actual evaporation for the three defined periods under seven SSP-RCP relative to 1995-2014 period over the five regions of the Belt and Road regions"

TermRegionsSSP1-1.9SSP1-2.6SSP4-3.4SSP2-4.5SSP4-6.0SSP3-7.0SSP5-8.5
Near-termTropical3.42.30.40.10.70.31.6
(2021-2040)Arid4.34.14.95.66.04.76.1
Temperate6.14.12.51.53.01.83.9
Cold7.67.26.15.56.56.17.9
Polar13.112.611.711.212.812.513.6
Mid-termTropical4.74.62.20.81.61.62.9
(2041-2060)Arid5.76.77.07.88.19.010.6
Temperate9.08.85.12.86.03.66.7
Cold9.811.011.09.911.010.913.1
Polar17.521.822.022.620.722.626.6
Long-termTropical4.84.94.73.80.66.58.7
(2081-2100)Arid3.16.112.417.510.514.022.8
Temperate4.19.69.87.69.010.613.5
Cold8.811.815.719.514.117.525.3
Polar14.823.931.839.028.734.851.3
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