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Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions ›› 2021, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (3): 220–233.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1226.2021.19059.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-06-24 接受日期:2021-02-02 出版日期:2021-06-30 发布日期:2021-07-05

Temporal changes in seasonal precipitation over the Sahara Desert from 1979 to 2016

Sindikubwabo Celestin1,2,Qi Feng1(),RuoLin Li1,3,WenJu Cheng1,2,Jian Ma4,Habiyakare Telesphore2,Nzabarinda Vincent2   

  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Eco-hydrology of Inland River Basin, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China
    2.University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
    3.Qilian Mountains Eco environment Research Center, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China
    4.Academy of Water Resources Conservation Forests in Qilian Mountains, Zhangye, Gansu 734000, China
  • Received:2020-06-24 Accepted:2021-02-02 Online:2021-06-30 Published:2021-07-05
  • Contact: Qi Feng E-mail:qifeng@lzb.ac.cn
  • Supported by:
    the National Key R&D Program of China(2017YFC0404305);National Natural Science Foundation of China(41801015);the Foundation for Excellent Young Scholars of Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources NIEER Chinese Academy of Sciences, CAS(51Y851D61);the Major Program of the Natural Science Foundation of Gansu province, China(18JR4RA002);Science and Technology Program of Gansu Province, China(18JR2RA026);the Chinese Academy of Sciences-The World Academy of Sciences (CAS-TWAS) President's Fellowship programme

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Abstract:

Rainfall variability dominates livelihoods in all countries of Saharan Africa. To better understand the processes involved in Sahara precipitation changes, we used the Global Precipitation Climatology Center (GPCC) dataset to examine dry and wet seasonal trends in the Sahara region from 1979 to 2016. We also used the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to evaluate the general atmospheric circulation associated with seasonal change of Sahara precipitation. The Mann-Kendall test and Theil sens' slope estimator methods were adopted to test and estimate the significance and weight of precipitation trend, respectively. The results revealed that Sahara precipitation has increased significantly. The seasonal evaluation shows a positive trend of 0.42 mm/decade and 1.43 mm/decade in JAS (June, August, and September) seasons for the northern and southern Saharan Desert, respectively. Moreover, the JFMA (January, February, March, and April) period shows a negative trend but not statistically significant. An examination of the general circulation and moisture transport changes suggested an increase of rainfall in southern Sahara. The wet period is also driven by northward penetration of moisture originating from the Sahel region, African Easterly Jet (AEJ), and weakening in the upper tropospheric zonal wind. Summer rainfall has also been likely associated with positive anomalies of sea surface temperature (SST) in the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) and the Mediterranean Sea.

Key words: Sahara, precipitation, variability, arid, Africa, climate

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RegionSeasonTrendP valueZ scoreSSlope
NorthJASincreasing0.00282.99212390.0416
JFMAno trend0.6328-0.4777-39-0.0118
MJno trend0.13141.50861210.0172
ONDno trend0.78210.2766230.0053
SouthJASincreasing0.00023.69612950.1427
JFMAno trend0.4507-0.7543-61-0.0078
MJno trend0.74380.3269270.0074
ONDno trend0.43570.7795630.0101

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