Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions ›› 2016, Vol. 8 ›› Issue (1): 82–94.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1226.2016.00082

• ARTICLES • 上一篇    

Synchronism of runoff response to climate change in Kaidu River Basin in Xinjiang, Northwest China

Jie Xue1,2,3,4, JiaQiang Lei1,2, DongWei Gui1,2, JianPing Zhao1,5, DongLei Mao1,2,3,4, Jie Zhou1,2,3,4   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China;
    2. Cele National Station of Observation and Research for Desert-Grassland Ecosystems, Cele, Xinjiang 848300, China;
    3. Key Laboratory of Biogeography and Bioresource in Arid Zone, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China;
    4. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    5. College of Mathematics and System Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830046, China
  • 收稿日期:2015-06-09 修回日期:2015-09-14 发布日期:2018-11-23
  • 通讯作者: JiaQiang Lei E-mail:desert@ms.xjb.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    This work was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41471031).

Synchronism of runoff response to climate change in Kaidu River Basin in Xinjiang, Northwest China

Jie Xue1,2,3,4, JiaQiang Lei1,2, DongWei Gui1,2, JianPing Zhao1,5, DongLei Mao1,2,3,4, Jie Zhou1,2,3,4   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China;
    2. Cele National Station of Observation and Research for Desert-Grassland Ecosystems, Cele, Xinjiang 848300, China;
    3. Key Laboratory of Biogeography and Bioresource in Arid Zone, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China;
    4. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    5. College of Mathematics and System Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830046, China
  • Received:2015-06-09 Revised:2015-09-14 Published:2018-11-23
  • Contact: JiaQiang Lei E-mail:desert@ms.xjb.ac.cn
  • Supported by:
    This work was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41471031).

摘要: The runoff in alpine river basins where the runoff is formed in nearby mountainous areas is mainly affected by temperature and precipitation. Based on observed annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and runoff time-series datasets during 1958-2012 within the Kaidu River Basin, the synchronism of runoff response to climate change was analyzed and identified by applying several classic methods, including standardization methods, Kendall's W test, the sequential version of the Mann-Kendall test, wavelet power spectrum analysis, and the rescaled range (R/S) approach. The concordance of the nonlinear trend variations of the annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and runoff was tested significantly at the 0.05 level by Kendall's W method. The sequential version of the Mann-Kendall test revealed that abrupt changes in annual runoff were synchronous with those of annual mean temperature. The periodic characteristics of annual runoff were mainly consistent with annual precipitation, having synchronous 3-year significant periods and the same 6-year, 10-year, and 38-year quasi-periodicities. While the periodic characteristics of annual runoff in the Kaidu River Basin tracked well with those of annual precipitation, the abrupt changes in annual runoff were synchronous with the annual mean temperature, which directly drives glacier- and snow-melt processes. R/S analysis indicated that the annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and runoff will continue to increase and remain synchronously persistent in the future. This work can improve the understanding of runoff response to regional climate change to provide a viable reference in the management of water resources in the Kaidu River Basin, a regional sustainable socio-economic development.

关键词: climate change, synchronism, wavelet power spectrum analysis, R/S method, runoff

Abstract: The runoff in alpine river basins where the runoff is formed in nearby mountainous areas is mainly affected by temperature and precipitation. Based on observed annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and runoff time-series datasets during 1958-2012 within the Kaidu River Basin, the synchronism of runoff response to climate change was analyzed and identified by applying several classic methods, including standardization methods, Kendall's W test, the sequential version of the Mann-Kendall test, wavelet power spectrum analysis, and the rescaled range (R/S) approach. The concordance of the nonlinear trend variations of the annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and runoff was tested significantly at the 0.05 level by Kendall's W method. The sequential version of the Mann-Kendall test revealed that abrupt changes in annual runoff were synchronous with those of annual mean temperature. The periodic characteristics of annual runoff were mainly consistent with annual precipitation, having synchronous 3-year significant periods and the same 6-year, 10-year, and 38-year quasi-periodicities. While the periodic characteristics of annual runoff in the Kaidu River Basin tracked well with those of annual precipitation, the abrupt changes in annual runoff were synchronous with the annual mean temperature, which directly drives glacier- and snow-melt processes. R/S analysis indicated that the annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and runoff will continue to increase and remain synchronously persistent in the future. This work can improve the understanding of runoff response to regional climate change to provide a viable reference in the management of water resources in the Kaidu River Basin, a regional sustainable socio-economic development.

Key words: climate change, synchronism, wavelet power spectrum analysis, R/S method, runoff

Armengol J, Sabater S, Sabater F, et al., 1991. Using the rescaled range analysis for the study of hydrological records:the river TER as an example. Oecologia Aquatic, 10(10):21-34.
Chen YN, 2014. Water Resources Research in Northwest China. Berlin, Springer Verlag. pp. 3-20.
Chen YN, Takeuchi K, Xu CC, et al., 2006. Regional climate change and its effects on river runoff in the Tarim Basin, China. Hydrological Processes, 20:2207-2216. DOI:10.1002/hyp.6200.
Farge M, 1992. Wavelet transforms and their applications to tur-bulence. Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics, 24:395-475. DOI:10.1146/annurev.fl.24.010192.002143.
Feng XL, Luo LC, Qiu LL, et al., 2008. Fractal analysis of climate change and Hurst Index experiment in Tibetan Plateau in future. Arid Land Geography, 31(2):175-181.
Gao YJ, Yan JP, 2011. A comparison on characteristics of climate change in the north and south of Tianshan Mountain. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 25(12):92-96.
Gerstengarbe FW, Werner PC, 1999. Estimation of the beginning and end of recurrent events within a climate regime. Climate Research, 11:97-107. DOI:10.3354/cr011097.
Hurst HE, 1951. Long-term storage capacity of reservoirs. Trans-actions of the American Society of Engineers, 116:770-779.
IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), 2014. The opening session of the thirty-eighth session of the IPCC. March 25, Yokohama, Japan.
Jiang DB, Wang HJ, Lang XM, 2004. Multimodel ensemble pre-diction for climate change trend of China under stress A2 sce-nario. Chinese Journal of Geophysics, 47(5):878-886. DOI:10.1002/cjg2.564.
Jung Y, Choi M, 2012. Survey-based approach for hydrological vulnerability indicators due to climate change:case study of small-scale rivers. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 48(2):256-265. DOI:10.1111/j.1752-1688.2011.00608.x.
Kendall MG, 1955. Rank Correlation Methods. New York:Hafner Publishing Company.
Lan YC, Wu SF, Zhong YJ, et al., 2007. Characteristics and trends of changes on water cycle factors in the Tianshan mountainous area since 1960s. Journal of Mountain Science, 25(2):177-183.
Lan YC, Zhong YJ, Wu SF, et al., 2011. Response of mountain runoff to climate change in representative rivers originated from the Tianshan Mountain. Journal of Desert Research, 31(1):254-260.
Legendre P, 2005. Species associations:The Kendall coefficient of concordance revisited. Journal of Agricultural, Biological, and Environmental Statistics, 10(2):226-245. DOI:10.1198/108571105X46642.
Li JS, Li JH, 2008. The application of Kendall's W test method in medicine. Modern Preventive Medicine, 35(1):33-42.
Li LH, Xu HG, Chen X, et al., 2010. Streamflow forecast and reservoir operation performance assessment under climate change. Water Resources Management, 24:83-104. DOI:10.1007/s11269-009-9438-x.
Li LJ, Zhang L, Wang H, et al., 2007. Assessing the impact of climate variability and human activities on streamflow from the Wuding River basin in China. Hydrological Processes, 21:3485-3491. DOI:10.1002/hyp.6485.
Li QH, Chen YN, Shen YJ, et al., 2011. Spatial and temporal trends of climate change in Xinjiang, China. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 21(6):1007-1018. DOI:10.1007/s11442-011-0896-8.
Li XM, Jiang FQ, Li LH, et al., 2010. Changing tendency and multi-Scale features of precipitation in the north source area and mainstream area of the Tarim River. Journal of Glaciology and Geocrylolgy, 32(2):285-294.
Li XM, Jiang FQ, Li LH, et al., 2011a. Spatial and temporal varia-bility of precipitation concentration index, concentration degree and concentration period in Xinjiang, China. International Journal of Climatology, 31:1679-1693. DOI:10.1002/joc.2181.
Li XM, Li LH, Guo LP, et al., 2011b. Impact of climate factors on runoff in the kaidu river watershed:path analysis of 50-year data. Journal of Arid Land, 3(2):132-140. DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1227.2011.00132.
Ling HB, Xu HL, Fu JY, et al., 2013. Suitable oasis scale in a typical continental river basin in an arid region of China:A case study of the Manas River Basin. Quaternary International, 286:116-125. DOI:10.1016/j.quaint.2012.07.027.
Liu J, Hayakawa N, Lu M, et al., 2003. Hydrological and geo-cryological response of winter streamflow to climate warming in Northeast China. Cold Regions Science and Technology, 37:15-24. DOI:10.1016/S0165-232X(03)00012-0.
Ma LP, 2000. Statistical data standardization-the dimensionless method. Beijing Statistics, 121:34-35.
Qian WH, Lin X, 2004. Regional trends in recent temperature indices in China. Climate Research, 27:119-134. DOI:10.3354/cr027119.
Rodrigo FS, Esteban-parra MJ, Pozo-Vazquez D, et al., 2000. Rainfall variability in southern spain on decadal to centennial time scales. International Journal of Climatology, 20:721-732. DOI:10.1002/1097-0088(20000615)20:7<721:AID-JOC520> 3.0.CO;2-Q.
Schmidt RC, 1997. Managing delphi survey using nonparametric statistical techniques. Decision Sciences, 28(3):763-774. DOI:10.1111/j.1540-5915.1997.tb01330.x.
Schucany WR, Frawley WH, 1973. A rank test for two group concordance. Psychometrika, 38(2):249-258. DOI:10.1007/BF02291117.
Shi YF, Shen YP, Kang ES, et al., 2007. Recent and future climate change in Northwest China. Climatic Change, 80(3-4):379-393. DOI:10.1007/s10584-006-9121-7.
Sneyers R, 1975. Sur l'analyse statistique des séries d'observations. WMO Tech Note.
Torrence C, Compo GP, 1998. A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 79:61-78.
Wang SJ, Zhang MJ, Li ZQ, et al., 2011. Glacier area variation and climate change in the Chinese Tianshan Mountains since 1960. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 21(2):263-273. DOI:10.1007/s11442-011-0843-8.
Xu CC, Chen YN, Yang YH, et al., 2010. Hydrology and water resources variation and its responses to regional climate change in Xinjiang. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 64(14):1331-1341. DOI:10.1007/s11442-010-0599-6.
Xu HL, Ye M, Song YD, 2007. Relationship between climate changes and annual runoff of headstrearns of Tarim River. Chinese Geographical Science, 27(2):219-224.
Xue J, Li LH, Li XM, et al., 2014. Annual distributions of precipitation and runoff and the synchronicity of their variations in the Kaidu river basin. Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment, 28(12):99-104.
Yang YH, Tian F, 2009. Abrupt change of runoff and its major driving factors in Haihe River catchment, China. Journal of Hydrology, 374:373-383. DOI:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2009.06.040.
Zhan LS, He JM, Ye YL, et al., 2006. Periodicity analysis of solar activity by wavelet analyzing method. Acta Astronomica Sinica, 47(2):166-174.
Zhang FY, Li LH, Ahmad S, et al., 2014. Using path analysis to identify the influence of climatic factors on spring peak flow dominated by snowmelt in an alpine watershed. Journal of Mountain Science, 11(4):990-1000. DOI:10.1007/s11629-013-2789-z.
Zhang YW, Wei WS, Jiang FQ, et al., 2012. Relationship between the North Atlantic Oscillation and climate change in Xinjiang in recent 50 Years. Plateau Meteorology, 31(4):974-982.
Zhao CY, Wang Y, Zhou XY, et al., 2013. Changes in climatic factors and extreme climate events in Northeast China during 1961-2010. Advances in Climate Change Research, 4(2):92-102. DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.092.
[1] Stuart A. Harris, HuiJun Jin, RuiXia He, SiZhong Yang. Tessellons, topography, and glaciations on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau[J]. Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions, 2018, 10(3): 187-206.
[2] ShuangQing Liu, ZuHan Liu, WeiGuo Wang, YuePing Lu, XiaoLiang Zhu, Bin Guo. Multifractal process of runoff fluctuation of the Kaidu River in Xinjiang, China[J]. Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions, 2018, 10(3): 232-239.
[3] Yong Yang, RenSheng Chen, YaoXuan Song, ChunTan Han, JunFeng Liu, ZhangWen Liu. Comparison of precipitation and evapotranspiration of five different land-cover types in the high mountainous region[J]. Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions, 2017, 9(6): 534-542.
[4] ZuHan Liu, JianHua Xu, WeiHong Li. Complex network analysis of climate change in the Tarim River Basin, Northwest China[J]. Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions, 2017, 9(5): 476-487.
[5] Sanjaya Gurung, Bikas C. Bhattarai, Rijan B. Kayastha, Dorothea Stumm, Sharad P. Joshi, Pradeep K. Mool. Study of annual mass balance (2011-2013) of Rikha Samba Glacier, Hidden Valley, Mustang,Nepal[J]. Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions, 2016, 8(4): 311-318.
[6] Wei Liu, ZongXing Li, Meng Zhu, XiaoYan Guo, LiJuan Chen. Temperature and precipitation changes in Extensive Hexi Region, China, 1960-2011[J]. Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions, 2016, 8(3): 212-226.
[7] GuoFeng Zhu, YuanQing He, DaHe Qin, HongKai Gao, Tao Pu, DongDong Chen, Kai Wang. The impacts of climate change on hydrology in a typical glacier region-A case study in Hailuo Creek watershed of Mt.Gongga in China[J]. Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions, 2016, 8(3): 227-240.
[8] TianDing Han, HongZheng Pu, Peng Cheng, KeQin Jiao. Hydrological effects of alpine permafrost in the headwaters of the Urumqi River, Tianshan Mountains[J]. Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions, 2016, 8(3): 241-249.
Viewed
Full text


Abstract

Cited

  Shared   
  Discussed   
No Suggested Reading articles found!