Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions ›› 2015, Vol. 7 ›› Issue (2): 170-179.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1226.2015.00170

• ARTICLES • Previous Articles    

Assessing changes in extreme precipitation over Xinjiang using regional climate model of PRECIS

YanWei Zhang1,2,3, QuanSheng Ge1, FengQing Jiang4, JingYun Zheng1, WenShou Wei4   

  1. 1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China;
    2. College of Environment and Planning, Shangqiu Normal University, Shangqiu, Henan 476000, China;
    3. College of Geographical Science, Shanxi Normal University, Linfen 041000, Shanxi, China;
    4. Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China
  • Received:2014-03-19 Revised:2014-07-17 Published:2018-11-23
  • Contact: Dr. QuanSheng Ge, Professor of Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences. No. 11, Datun Road, Beijing 100101, China. E-mail:
  • Supported by:
    The research presented in this article was jointly funded by Henan Province Office of education of Humanities and social science research projects (2014-qn-151); the "Western Light" Project (RCPY200902) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences; the special scientific research project (GYHY200706008); the project of National Social Science Foundation (14CJY077); Science and Technology Department of Henan Province key scientific and technological project (142102310299); and the National Natural Science Foundation (41171066) of Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography.

Abstract: In this paper, an analysis, with the simulation of PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies), was made for future precipitation extremes, under SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A2 and B2 in IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) AR4. The precipitation extremes were calculated and analyzed by ETCCDI (Climate Change Detection and Indices). The results show that: (1) In Present Scenario (1961-1900), PRECIS could capture the spatial pattern of precipitation in Xinjiang. (2) The simulated annual precipitation and seasonal precipitation in Xinjiang had a significantly positive trend and its variability had been deeply impacted by terrain. There was a strong association between increasing trend and the extreme precipitation's increase in frequency and intensity during 1961-2008. Under SRES A2 and B2, extreme precipitation indicated an increasing tendency at the end of the 21st century. The extreme summer precipitation increased prominently in a year. (3) PRECIS's simulation under SRES A2 and B2 indicated increased frequency of heavy precipitation events and also enhancement in their intensity towards the end of the 21st century. Both A2 and B2 scenarios show similar patterns of projected changes in precipitation extremes towards the end of the 21st century. However, the magnitude of changes in B2 scenario was on the lower side. In case of extreme precipitation, variation between models can exceed both internal variability and variability of different SRES.

Key words: climate change, PRECIS, Xinjiang, extreme precipitation, IPCC

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