Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions ›› 2016, Vol. 8 ›› Issue (1): 82-94.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1226.2016.00082

• ARTICLES • Previous Articles    

Synchronism of runoff response to climate change in Kaidu River Basin in Xinjiang, Northwest China

Jie Xue1,2,3,4, JiaQiang Lei1,2, DongWei Gui1,2, JianPing Zhao1,5, DongLei Mao1,2,3,4, Jie Zhou1,2,3,4   

  1. 1. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China;
    2. Cele National Station of Observation and Research for Desert-Grassland Ecosystems, Cele, Xinjiang 848300, China;
    3. Key Laboratory of Biogeography and Bioresource in Arid Zone, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830011, China;
    4. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China;
    5. College of Mathematics and System Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830046, China
  • Received:2015-06-09 Revised:2015-09-14 Published:2018-11-23
  • Contact: JiaQiang Lei
  • Supported by:
    This work was financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41471031).

Abstract: The runoff in alpine river basins where the runoff is formed in nearby mountainous areas is mainly affected by temperature and precipitation. Based on observed annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and runoff time-series datasets during 1958-2012 within the Kaidu River Basin, the synchronism of runoff response to climate change was analyzed and identified by applying several classic methods, including standardization methods, Kendall's W test, the sequential version of the Mann-Kendall test, wavelet power spectrum analysis, and the rescaled range (R/S) approach. The concordance of the nonlinear trend variations of the annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and runoff was tested significantly at the 0.05 level by Kendall's W method. The sequential version of the Mann-Kendall test revealed that abrupt changes in annual runoff were synchronous with those of annual mean temperature. The periodic characteristics of annual runoff were mainly consistent with annual precipitation, having synchronous 3-year significant periods and the same 6-year, 10-year, and 38-year quasi-periodicities. While the periodic characteristics of annual runoff in the Kaidu River Basin tracked well with those of annual precipitation, the abrupt changes in annual runoff were synchronous with the annual mean temperature, which directly drives glacier- and snow-melt processes. R/S analysis indicated that the annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, and runoff will continue to increase and remain synchronously persistent in the future. This work can improve the understanding of runoff response to regional climate change to provide a viable reference in the management of water resources in the Kaidu River Basin, a regional sustainable socio-economic development.

Key words: climate change, synchronism, wavelet power spectrum analysis, R/S method, runoff

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