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Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions ›› 2022, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (2): 138-150.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1226.2022.21055.

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Simulation assessment and prediction of future temperatures in Northwest China from BCC-CSM Model

YuFei Pei1,MinHong Song1(),XiaoLing Ma1,TongWen Wu2,ShaoBo Zhang1   

  1. 1.School of Atmospheric Science, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu, Sichuan 610225, China
    2.National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2021-07-06 Accepted:2021-12-22 Online:2022-04-30 Published:2022-04-25
  • Contact: MinHong Song E-mail:songmh@cuit.edu.cn
  • Supported by:
    the Numerical model development project of China Meteorological Administration(QHMS2018018);Research Fund Project of Chengdu University of Information Technology(KYTZ201721)

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Abstract:

Three deterministic prediction evaluation methods, including the standard deviation, root-mean-square error, and time correlation coefficient, and three extreme temperature indices were used to assess the performance of the BCC_CSM2_MR model from CMIP6 in simulating the climate of Northwest China based on monthly grid air temperature data from ground stations. The model performance was evaluated using the daily mean temperature, daily minimum temperature, and daily maximum temperature from 1961 to 2014 and future temperature changes in Northwest China under different radiative forcing scenarios. The BCC_CSM2_MR model reproduces well the seasonal changes, spatial distribution, and other characteristics of the daily mean temperature in Northwest China, especially in the Tarim Basin, the Kunlun and Qilian mountains, and Shaanxi. There is still some deviation in the simulation of the daily mean temperature in the high terrains of the Tianshan, Kunlun, and Altai mountains. The model better simulates the daily minimum temperature than the daily maximum temperature. The simulation error is smallest in summer, followed by autumn and winter, and largest in spring. In terms of extreme temperature indices, the deviations are smaller for cold nights, warm nights, and the annual maximum daily minimum temperatures. Furthermore, the model can capture the increase in warm events and the decrease in cold events. Under different forcing scenarios, there is a general warming trend in Northwest China, with the greatest warming in Xinjiang.

Key words: Northwest China, BCC_CSM2_MR, extreme temperature index

Table 1

Definition of the 12 extreme temperature indices"

NameCodeDefinitionUnit
Frost daysFDAnnual number of days when the daily minimum temperature is <0 ℃days
Ice daysIDAnnual number of days when the daily maximum temperature is <0 ℃days
Summer daysSUAnnual number of days when the daily maximum temperature is >25 ℃days
Tropical nightsTRAnnual number of days when the daily minimum temperature is >20 ℃days
Cold nightsTN10pPercentage of days when the daily minimum temperature is <10th percentile%
Cold daysTX10pPercentage of days when the daily maximum temperature is <10th percentile%
Warm nightsTN90pPercentage of days when the daily minimum temperature is >90th percentile%
Warm daysTX90pPercentage of days when the daily maximum temperature is >90th percentile%
Minimum TminTNnAnnual minimum daily minimum temperature℃
Minimum TmaxTXnAnnual minimum daily maximum temperature℃
Maximum TminTNxAnnual maximum daily minimum temperature℃
Maximum TmaxTXxAnnual maximum daily maximum temperature℃

Figure 1

Spatial distribution in the measured values (left-hand panels) and pattern values (middle panels) of the (a-c) daily mean temperature, (d-f) daily maximum temperature, and (g-i) daily minimum temperature and their differences (right-hand panels) for Northwest China from 1961 to 2014 (units: °C)"

Figure 2

Spatial distribution of the RMSE for the measured and modeled data for (a) daily mean temperature, (b) daily maximum temperature, and (c) daily minimum temperature in Northwest China from 1961 to 2014 (units: °C)"

Figure 3

Spatial distribution of correlation coefficients between the measured and modeled data for the (a) daily mean temperature, (b) daily maximum temperature, and (c) daily minimum temperature in Northwest China from 1961 to 2014. Note that the points indicate the areas that pass the 95% confidence test"

Figure 4

Spatial distribution of measured (left-hand panels) and modeled (center panels) multi-year mean temperature and the difference between them (right-hand panels) for the four seasons in Northwest China from 1961 to 2014 (units: °C)"

Table 2

Trends of 12 extreme temperature indices for the observed and modeled data in Northwest China"

IndexMeasured trendsModel trends
FD (days per decade)-0.1956-0.0512
ID (days per decade)-0.0992-0.0103
SU (days per decade)0.01060.0590
TR* (days per decade)0.02040.0117
TN10p (% per decade)-0.8498-0.4690
TX10p (% per decade)-0.2800-0.4574
TN90p* (% per decade)1.65650.9874
TX90p (% per decade)0.86990.7883
TNn (℃ per decade)0.35800.3230
TXn (℃ per decade)0.32300.2587
TNx (℃ per decade)0.17810.2361
TXx (℃ per decade)0.17000.2232

Figure 5

Spatial distribution of measured (left-hand panels) and modeled (center panels) data for (a-c) the number of frost days and (d-f) the number of summer days and the difference between modeled and measured data (right-hand panels) in Northwest China from 1961 to 2014 (units: days)"

Figure 6

Spatial distribution of measured (left-hand panels) and modeled data (center panels) for (a-c) cold and (d-f) warm nights and the difference between the modeled and measured ones (right-hand panel) in Northwest China from 1961 to 2014 (units: %)"

Figure 7

Spatial distribution of the measured (left-hand panels) and model data (center panels) of (a-c) the annual minimum daily temperature and (d-f) the annual maximum daily temperature and the difference between model and measured data (right-hand panels) in Northwest China from 1961 to 2014 (units: °C)"

Figure 8

Taylor diagram for 12 climate indices"

Figure 9

Spatial distribution of daily mean temperatures in Northwest China from 2015 to 2100 (units: °C/100a)"

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