Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions ›› 2017, Vol. 9 ›› Issue (1): 46-53.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1226.2017.00046

• ARTICLES • Previous Articles    

CO2 seasonal variation and global change: Test global warming from another point of view

XiuMing Liu1,2, JiaSheng Chen1   

  1. 1. School of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, Fujian 350007, China;
    2. Department of Environment and Geography, Macquarie University, Sydney NSW 2109, Australia
  • Received:2016-08-19 Revised:2016-11-01 Published:2018-11-23
  • Contact: XiuMing Liu, School of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, Fujian 350007, China. Tel:+86-591-83581207; E-mail:XiuMing Liu, School of Geographical Sciences, Fujian Normal University, Fuzhou, Fujian 350007, China. Tel:+86-591-83581207;
  • Supported by:
    The authors gratefully acknowledge support for this research from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41210002, 41602190 & U1405231). This manuscript benefited from Dr. Byr-nes's help in writing and from the comments of an anonymous reviewer.

Abstract: CO2 and temperature records at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, and other observation stations show that the correlation between CO2 and temperature is not significant. These stations are located away from big cities, and in various latitudes and hemispheres. But the correlation is significant in global mean data. Over the last five decades, CO2 has grown at an accelerating rate with no corresponding rise in temperature in the stations. This discrepancy indicates that CO2 probably is not the driving force of temperature change globally but only locally (mainly in big cities). We suggest that the Earth's atmospheric concentration of CO2 is too low to drive global temperature change. Our empirical perception of the global warming record is due to the urban heat island effect:temperature rises in areas with rising population density and rising industrial activity. This effect mainly occurs in the areas with high population and intense human activities, and is not representative of global warming. Regions far from cities, such as the Mauna Loa highland, show no evident warming trend. The global monthly mean temperature calculated by record data, widely used by academic researchers, shows R2=0.765, a high degree of correlation with CO2. However, the R2 shows much less significance (mean R2=0.024) if calculated by each record for 188 selected stations over the world. This test suggests that the inflated high correlation between CO2 and temperature (mean R2=0.765-0.024=0.741) used in reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was very likely produced during data correction and processing. This untrue global monthly mean temperature has created a picture:human emission drives global warming.

Key words: CO2, Mauna Loa, Hawaii, seasonal variations, greenhouse effect, global warming

AHCCD, 2013. Homogenized Surface Air Temperature Data Access. Environment Canada. Cited in November 26, 2013.
Angell JK, 1988. Variations and trends in tropospheric and stratospheric global temperatures, 1958-1987. Journal of Climate, 1:1296-1313. DOI:10.1175/1520-0442(1988)001 <1296:VATITA>2.0.CO;2.
Bacastow R, Keeling C, Whorf T, 1985. Seasonal amplitude increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration at Mauna Loa, Hawaii, 1959-1982. Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres (1984-2012), 90:10529-10540. DOI:10.1029/JD090iD06p10529.
Bryant E, 1997. Climate Process and Change. Cambridge University Press, pp. 1-228.
CDIAC, 2013. Carbon Dioxide (CO2). ORNL. Cited in November 26, 2013.
CMDL, 2013. Monthly Average Temperature. MAUNA LOA SLOPE OBS, HAWAII. Cited in November 26, 2013.
CSIRO, 2013. Cape Grim Greenhouse Gas Data. CSIRO. Cited in November 26, 2013.
ESRL, 2013. NCEP-DOE AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2). NOAA. Cited in November 26, 2013.
GISS, 2013. GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP). National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Cited in November 26, 2013.
Hansen J, Ruedy R, Sato M, et al., 2010. Global surface temperature change. Reviews of Geophysics, 48:RG4004. DOI:10.1029/2010RG000345.
Heisler GM, Brazel AJ, 2010. The Urban Physical Environment:Temperature and Urban Heat Islands. In:Aitkenhead-Peterson J, Volder A (eds.). Agronomy Monograph 55. Urban Ecosystem Ecology, pp. 29-56. DOI:10.2134/agronmonogr55.c2.
Houghton J, 2009. Global Warming:The Complete Briefing. Cambridge University Press, pp. 1-438.
IPCC, 2002. Report of the Nineteenth Session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Geneva, April 17-20 (am only), 2002.
IPCC, 2007. Climate Change 2007——the Physical Science Basis:Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press.
IPCC, 2013. Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)——Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis.
Jones PD, 1994. Hemispheric surface air temperature variations:a reanalysis and an update to 1993. Journal of Climate, 7:1794-1802. DOI:<1794:HSATVA>2.0.CO;2.
Leroux M, 2005. Global warming-myth or reality? The Erring Ways of Climatology. Chichester, UK:Springer, pp. 1-509.
Ma Y, Wang S, Wei H, 2009. Characteristics of urban heat island over Lanzhou in recent 50 years. Meteorological Science and Technology, 37:660-664. (in Chinese).
Marcott SA, Shakun JD, Clark PU, et al., 2013. A reconstruction of regional and global temperature for the past 11,300 years. Science, 339:1198-1201.
Pieter T, 2013. Full Mauna Loa CO2 record. NOAA/ESRL. Accessed on November 26, 2013.
WRCC, 2013. Monthly Average Temperature. MAUNA LOA SLOPE OBS, HAWAII. Cited in November 26, 2013.
Zheng S, Liu S, 2008. Urbanization effect on climate in Beijing. Climatic and Environmental Research, 13:123-133. (in Chinese)
Zhu JQ, Tang X, Jiang H, 2006. The air temperature variation and heat island effect in urban area of Shanghai City. Plateau Meteorology, 25:1154-1160. (in Chinese)
[1] Yong Yang, RenSheng Chen, YaoXuan Song, ChunTan Han, JunFeng Liu, ZhangWen Liu. Comparison of precipitation and evapotranspiration of five different land-cover types in the high mountainous region [J]. Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions, 2017, 9(6): 534-542.
Full text



No Suggested Reading articles found!