Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions ›› 2016, Vol. 8 ›› Issue (4): 350-358.doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1226.2016.00350

• ARTICLES • Previous Articles    

The simulation of LUCC based on Logistic-CA-Markov model in Qilian Mountain area, China

HaiJun Wang1,2, XiangDong Kong1, Bo Zhang2   

  1. 1. Engineering & Technical College of Chengdu University of Technology, Leshan, Sichuan 614007, China;
    2. The College of Geography and Environmental Science, Northwest Normal University, Lanzhou, Gansu 730070, China
  • Received:2016-03-11 Revised:2016-06-13 Published:2018-11-23
  • Contact: HaiJun Wang, Lecture of Engineering & Technical College of Chengdu University of Technology. No. 222, Xiaoba Road, Leshan, Sichuan 614000, China.
  • Supported by:
    This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 4961038), Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan Province Education Depart-ment (No. 16ZB0402), Engineering and Technical College of Chengdu University of Technology Foun-dation (No. C122014014), the key research projects of Science and Technology Bureau of Leshan Town.

Abstract: The Qilian mountain area was examined for using the Logistic-CA-Markov coupling model combined with GIS spatial analyst technology to research the transformation of LUCC, driving force system and simulate future tendency of variation. Results show that:(1) Woodland area decreased by 12.55%, while grassland, cultivated land, and settlement areas increased by 0.22%, 7.92%, and 0.03%, respectively, from 1986 to 2014. During the period of 1986 to 2000, forest degradation in the middle section of the mountain area decreased by 1,501.69 km2. Vegetation cover area improved, with a net increase of grassland area of 38.12 km2 from 2000 to 2014. (2) For constructing the system driving force, the best simulation scale was 210m×210m. Based on logistic regression analysis, the contribution (weight) of composite driving forces to land use and cover change was obtained, and the weight value was more objectively compared with AHP and MCE method. (3) In the natural scenarios, it is predicted that land use and cover distribution maps of Qilian mountain area in 2028 and 2042, and the Lee-Sallee index test was adopted. Over the next 27 years (2015-2042), farmland, woodland, grassland, settlement areas show an increasing trend, especially settlements with an obvious change of 0.56%. The area of bare land will decrease by 0.89%. Without environmental degradation, tremendous structural change of LUCC will not occur, and typical characteristic of the vertical zone of the mountain would remain. Farmland and settlement areas will increase, but only in the vicinity of Qilian and Sunan counties.

Key words: Qilian mountain area, LUCC, Logistic-CA-Markov model, simulation and prediction

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