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Possible change on the runoff in the upper Yellow River basin under global climate change
Received:October 08, 2008  Revised:December 22, 2008  Click here to download the full text
Citation of this paper:YongChao Lan,Jun Wen,JunJie Chang,YeXin Xu,YongPing Shen,XingLin Hu,JinQi Lu,2009.Possible change on the runoff in the upper Yellow River basin under global climate change.Sciences in Cold and Arid Regions,1(2):0157~0164.
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Author NameAffiliationE-mail
YongChao Lan 1.Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology and Integrated River Basin Science, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China. 2.Institute of the Riverhead Region of the Yellow River, Water Conservancy Committee of the Yellow River Basin, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China. lyc@lzb.ac.cn 
Jun Wen Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology and Integrated River Basin Science, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China.  
JunJie Chang Institute of the Riverhead Region of the Yellow River, Water Conservancy Committee of the Yellow River Basin, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China.  
YeXin Xu Institute of the Riverhead Region of the Yellow River, Water Conservancy Committee of the Yellow River Basin, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China.  
YongPing Shen Key Laboratory of Ecohydrology and Integrated River Basin Science, Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, Gansu 730000, China.  
XingLin Hu Institute of the Riverhead Region of the Yellow River, Water Conservancy Committee of the Yellow River Basin, Lanzhou, Gansu 730030, China.  
JinQi Lu Institute of the Riverhead Region of the Yellow River, Water Conservancy Committee of the Yellow River Basin, Lanzhou, Gansu 730030, China.  
 
Abstract:In this study, the characteristics and changing trends of temperature, precipitation, and runoff in the upper Yellow River basin up Tangnag station are analyzed by using hydrological and meteorological data in the past 50 years from observation stations in the basin. Further, in this study, the evolving trend of runoff in the future decades is forecasted in the basin based on the method of suppositional climate scenes combination. The results indicate temperature variation in the basin has an evident positive relation with global warming, and the precipitation variations are quite complicated in the basin because of differences of located geographic positions during the past 50 years. Runoff in the basin has been decreasing continually since the end of the 1980s because the mean temperature in the basin has been rising and precipitation in the main areas of runoff formation in the basin has been decreasing. Runoff will largely decrease if precipitation decreases and temperature rises continuously, whereas runoff will increase if temperature is invariable and precipitation increases largely; the increase magnitude of runoff may be more than that of precipitation because of the synchronously increasing supply of meltwater from snow, glacier, and frozen soils in future several decades.
keywords:global climate change  upper Yellow River  runoff variation  circulation
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